Futures Focus-A Systematic Review of Scenario Planning, Strategic Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities

Abstract

This study explores the critical capabilities of Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight, examining their interrelationship with Dynamic Capabilities and their role in enhancing strategic leadership in volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous and disruptive environments. Using a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) methodology grounded in the PRISMA framework, the research synthesises existingexisting knowledge, identifies research gaps, and draws robust conclusions from the body of literature on Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight. The inclusion criterion comprises articles from reputable journals including Scopus indexed journals written in English which covered comprehensively the concepts of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning. The exclusion criteria included not accepting any article that was non-English, articles that had insufficient data and articles which had weak methodologies. The findings reveal that Scenario Planning serves as a practical tool within the broader framework of Strategic Foresight, with both concepts complementing each other to enhance organisational resilience and adaptability. The study also identifies essential cognitive paradigms, including future thinking, systems thinking and exponential thinking, which enable effective Strategic Foresight and strategic decision-making. Scenario Planning was shown to foster organisational learning, innovation and strategic agility, while Strategic Foresight empowers leaders to anticipate and shape future opportunities and challenges. The research is limited by its reliance on secondary data, potentially excluding emerging real-world practices. However, the findings provide valuable insights for managers seeking to develop foresight and Scenario Planning capabilities, emphasizing tools like horizon scanning and scenario modelling to improve competitiveness. This study contributes to strategic management literature by elucidating the complementary roles of Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight in navigating turbulent business environments.